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Decisions by Payoff

Nassin Nicholas Taleb, 2007, The Black Swan, Penguin Books: 364

M0
"True/False"
M1
Expectations
Medical results for one person (health, not epidemics) Epidemics (number of persons infected)
Psychology experiments (yes/no answers) Intellectual and artistic success (defined as book sales, citations, etc.)
Life/Death (for a single person, not for n persons) Climate effects (any quantitative metric)
Symmetric bets in roulette War damage (number of causalities)
Prediction markets Security, terrorism, natural catastrophes (number of victims)
... General risk management
... Finance: performance of a nonleveraged investment (say, a retirement account)
... Insurance (measures of expected losses)
... Economics (policy)
... Casinos