< back

Phronetic Rules

Nassin Nicholas Taleb, 2007, The Black Swan, Penguin Books: 371

  1. Have respect for time and nondemonstrative knowledge.
  2. Avoid optimization; learn to love redundancy.
  3. Avoid prediction of small-probability payoffs - though not necessarily of ordinary ones.
  4. Beaware the "atypicality" of remote events.
  5. Beaware moral hazard with bonus payments.
  6. Avoid some risk metrics.
  7. Positive or negative Black Swan?
  8. Do not confise absence of volatility with absence of risk.
  9. Beaware presentations of risk numbers.